Self-reported sickness absence as a risk marker of future disability pension. Prospective findings from the DWECS/DREAM study 1990-2004

OBJECTIVES This prospective cohort study examines number of self-reported days of sickness absence as a risk marker for future disability pension among a representative sample of employees in Denmark 1990-2004. MATERIAL AND METHODS 4177 employees between 18 and 45 years were interviewed using a self-administered questionnaire in 1990 regarding sickness absence, age, gender, socioeconomic position, health behaviour, and physical and psychosocial work environment. They were followed for 168 months in a national disability pension register. Logistic regression analysis was performed in order to assess risk estimates for levels of absence and future disability pension. RESULTS During follow-up, a total of 140 persons (3.4%) received disability pension. Of these, 82 (58.6%) were women, 58 (41.4%) were men. There was a 2.5 fold risk of future disability pension for the part of the population reporting more than 6 days of sickness absence per annum at baseline, when taking into account gender, age, socioeconomic position, health behaviour, physical and psychosocial work environment. CONCLUSION The findings suggest that information on self-reported days of sickness absence can be used to effectively identify "at risk" groups for disability pension.